[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 26 10:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Minor flaring was noted from active region 2434(West
Limb) during the UT day, 25 Oct. All active regions on the visible
solar disk, including the largest region 2436(N09W32)remain stable
during the period. Expect Low solar activity next three days
with a slight chance of an isolated M-class event. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Solar wind speeds ranged between 420-550Km/s
and are presently above 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly
northward. Mildly elevated solar wind speeds are expected to
persist today 26 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 21213211
Cocos Island 6 21213211
Darwin 7 31213211
Townsville 6 22213211
Learmonth 7 22223212
Alice Springs 6 21213211
Norfolk Island 6 21213211
Culgoora 8 211--33-
Gingin 7 31213212
Camden 6 22213211
Canberra 3 21202101
Launceston 8 22313212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 21311100
Casey 22 55532212
Mawson 11 33313322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2330 1143
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Oct 7 Quiet
28 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions remained Quiet to Unsettled
on 25 Oct and are expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled today,26
Oct. Conditions are expected to trend back to mostly Quiet levels
27-28 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly Normal ionospheric conditions were observed across
all AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours, UT day 25 Oct. Mostly
similar ionospheric conditions are expected over the next 3 days.
Space Weather Services is currently not receiving data from many
stations. This technical fault is under investigation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 95000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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