[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 27 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day Oct 26. A C2
level flare was observed in AR2437 (S21W23) at 1029UT. A solar
filament lift-off occurred during the mid-part of the UT day
near S55W45. No Earth-directed CME's were observed over the period.
Expect continuing low activity days one to three with the chance
of isolated C- to M-class flares. Solar wind speed declined gradually
from 450 to 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly mildly
Northward. Solar wind speed is expected to increase to moderate
levels days two to three.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 2 21100011
Learmonth 3 21200002
Alice Springs 2 21100001
Norfolk Island 1 11100011
Culgoora 7 212-2--3
Gingin 1 10100001
Camden 3 21111011
Canberra 0 10100000
Launceston 2 11200011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00100010
Casey 11 44420000
Mawson 8 32312203
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2131 3101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 5 Quiet
28 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels with isolated
Unsettled periods observed early in the UT day at high latitudes
only. Expect Quiet conditions day one. Mildly elevated solar
wind parameters may bring occasionally Unsettled periods days
two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced to 15% local day.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced to 15% local day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values.
Expect similar conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed
periods Antarctic region days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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