[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 25 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low for the UT day, 24Oct. Minor
flaring was noted from active region 2434(S11W75) during the
UT day. Region 2436 remains the largest region on the visible
solar disk, but is decaying. All other active regions remain
relatively stable. Expect Low solar activity next three days
with a slight chance of an isolated M-class event. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. A moderate shock was observed in the solar
wind at 1830UT in association with the anticipated arrival of
a CME observed on 22 Oct. Solar wind speeds reached approximately
520km/s and are presently above 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component
was mostly northward with a deep brief excursion to -10nT at
~~ 1930UT. Mildly elevated solar wind speeds are expected to persist
today 25 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22211132
Cocos Island 5 22111031
Darwin 6 22201132
Townsville 7 22211133
Learmonth 6 22211132
Alice Springs 5 22201032
Norfolk Island 6 22200042
Culgoora 10 23223322
Gingin 6 32210032
Camden 8 22311133
Canberra 4 12201022
Launceston 10 33311133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 22300022
Casey 23 45531143
Mawson 21 44432253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2000 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 20 Quiet to Active.
26 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions remained mostly Quiet
to Unsettled on 24 Oct. Although solar wind speed increased,
the IMF Bz component maintained a moderately northward bias for
most of the UT day, limiting magnetic connection. With the solar
wind speed expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours,
a favourable interplanetary magnetic field orientation of prolonged
southward Bz can lead to Active and Minor Storm levels in the
Southern regions of Australia and the Antarctic. Conditions are
expected to trend back to mostly Quiet levels on day 3 of the
forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 55 Near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly Normal ionospheric conditions were observed across
all AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours, UT day 24 Oct. Mildly
degraded HF conditions may be observed during the next few days
due to low levels of ionising radiation and mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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