[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 18 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 19 10:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low today. Only three low C-class
flares were observed during this period. The solar wind stream
became stronger than expectations, with solar wind speed gradually
increasing from 350 km/s to around 480 km/s during the UT day.
The Bz component of the IMF mostly varied in the range of +8/-11
nT until around 1400 UT and then stayed close to the normal value
for the remaining hours of the day. Moderate levels of solar
activity with the possibility of more C-class and some M-class
activities may be expected over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 23353322
Cocos Island 8 22242220
Darwin 15 23353321
Townsville 16 23353322
Learmonth 17 33353322
Alice Springs 15 23353321
Norfolk Island 14 23352222
Culgoora 12 12252232
Gingin 20 32363322
Camden 29 ---6332-
Canberra 13 23352221
Melbourne 21 23363332
Launceston 33 34473333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 36 24475431
Casey 21 35543222
Mawson 48 54454656
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2222 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 12 Quiet to Active
20 Oct 6 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 10 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity rose above the expected levels
today (18 October). Some periods of Minor Storm were observed.
Due to strong solar wind the geomagnetic conditions may rise
up to Active levels on 19 October and then gradually decline
to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 20 October. Further rise to Active
levels is possible on 21 October due to the possible effect of
a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole that is expected
to take a geoeffective position around that time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
20 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next three days (19 to 21
October) with the possibility of relatively slightly better conditions
on 20 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
20 Oct 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
21 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions over the last
24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next
three days (19 to 21 October) with the possibility of relatively
slightly better conditions on 20 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 12.2 p/cc Temp: 32900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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