[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 15 issued 2331 UT on 19 Oct 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 20 10:31:23 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low for the UT day, 19 Oct. There
is potential for C to M-class flare activity next three days.
No new Earthward directed CME was launched during 19 Oct. The
Solar wind speed continues to decline over the last 24 hours
as the influence of the coronal hole subside, currently near
375km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-4nT with
prolonged periods of weak southward Bz. A coronal hole wind stream
onset is anticipated late day two of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 01102011
Cocos Island 2 11101011
Darwin 2 11111011
Townsville 3 11003011
Learmonth 2 01211011
Alice Springs 2 01211011
Norfolk Island 2 01002012
Culgoora 12 -2--3--3
Gingin 2 11111011
Camden 2 11002011
Canberra 1 01002001
Melbourne 2 01211011
Launceston 3 01103012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 00101001
Casey 7 23321012
Mawson 11 22222125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21 3345 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 6 Quiet
21 Oct 12 Quiet to Active.
22 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet on 19 Oct.
The Earth is presently immersed in slow solar wind and the geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain mostly Quiet today, 20 Oct.
A coronal hole wind stream onset is anticipated and subsequent
fast wind is expected to arrive at Earth during 21-22 Oct and
drive Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Oct 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Oct 30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF radio propagation were depressed throughout the Australian
region during 19 Oct. Expect depressed MUFs over the next three
days. A minor geomagnetic storm may occur during 21-22 Oct. This
may lead to deeper depressions during 22 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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