[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 17 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 18 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 2042UT observed lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar Activity was moderate over the last 24 hours.
Several C-class and two M1 flares were observed during this period.
These M1.1 and M1.5 flares peaked respectively at 2023 UT and
2042 UT. The solar wind stream remained more steady today, with
solar wind speed staying close to 350 km/s almost the whole UT
day. The Bz component of the IMF mostly varied in the range of
+/-5 nT during most parts of the day. Moderate levels of solar
activity with the possibility of more C-class and some M-class
activities may be expected over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 22133231
Cocos Island 5 11112231
Darwin 7 22122231
Townsville 9 22133231
Learmonth 10 22133332
Alice Springs 7 21123231
Norfolk Island 6 22132121
Culgoora 7 11123-31
Gingin 10 11133341
Camden 16 42-3----
Canberra 5 21022221
Melbourne 9 22133231
Launceston 10 22233331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 11245420
Casey 13 33333232
Mawson 35 54423371
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2331 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 7 Mostly Quiet, some Unsettled periods possible
19 Oct 5 Quiet
20 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity was mostly
at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected on 18 October. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected on 19 and 20 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
19 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions over the last
24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on UT day
18 October due to low levels of ionising radiation. Slight relative
improvements in HF conditions may be possible on 19 and 20 October
as the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at Quiet levels
on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
19 Oct 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
20 Oct 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 15 October
and is current for 16-18 Oct. Minor to mild MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
on UT day 18 October due to low levels of ionising radiation.
Slight relative improvements in HF conditions may be possible
on 19 and 20 October as the geomagnetic activity is expected
to remain at Quiet levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 63000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list