[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 17 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 15/2332UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0617UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar Activity was moderate over the last 24 hours.
Region 2434(S10E34) produced several C-class flares and two M1.1
flares during this period. These flares peaked respectively at
Oct15/2331 UT and Oct16/0616 UT. The solar wind stream showed
gradual weakening, with solar wind speed slowly decreasing from
450 to 350 km/s during the UT day today as the effect of the
coronal hole gradually weakened. The Bz component of the IMF
mostly stayed negative up to around -5 nT until 9 UT and after
19 UT. Bz remained mostly positive up to around +5 nT during
most of the remaining hours of the day. The solar wind stream
is expected to further weaken over the next 24 hours and remain
at weaker levels for two days thereafter. Moderate levels of
solar activity with the possibility of more C-class and some
M-class activities may be expected over the next three days due
to the rise in area and complexity of region 2434 and some flares
possible from the returning regions 2420 and 2422. Region 2420
(N14) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around
17 Oct. Also, region 2422 (S20) which previously produced M-flare(s)
is due to return around this date as well.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21113111
Cocos Island 2 11112000
Darwin 6 21213112
Townsville 5 22113111
Learmonth 5 21213102
Alice Springs 5 21213101
Norfolk Island 3 11102111
Culgoora 6 11122322
Gingin 4 21112201
Camden 7 ----2---
Canberra 2 11102100
Melbourne 5 12213111
Launceston 6 22213202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 12203201
Casey 9 33322212
Mawson 12 44322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2232 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct 8 Quiet
19 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
over the last 24 hours. This was below the anticipated levels.
Due to the weakening in the effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may remain mostly
at Quiet levels for the next three days (17 to 19 October) with
the possibility Unsettled periods on 17 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected on UT day 17 October due to continued
expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this
period and low levels of ionising radiation. Slight relative
improvements in HF conditions may be possible on 18 and 19 October
as the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at Quiet levels
on these days. However, due to continued low levels of ionising
radiation, HF conditions may not show significant improvements
even on 18 and 19 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 20 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
18 Oct 25 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
19 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 15 October
and is current for 16-18 Oct. Minor to mild MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
on UT day 17 October due to continued expected slight rise in
geomagnetic activity levels during this period and low levels
of ionising radiation. Slight relative improvements in HF conditions
may be possible on 18 and 19 October as the geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain at Quiet levels on these days. However,
due to continued low levels of ionising radiation, HF conditions
may not show significant improvements even on 18 and 19 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 76700 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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