[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 10 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 09 October.
Minor flaring was noted from active region 2429 during the UT
day. Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three
days. The Solar wind speed continues to decline over the last
24 hours as the influence of the coronal hole subside, currently
just over 600km/s. The interplanetary magnetic total field strength
was approximately 6nT during this period. The Bz component of
the IMF ranged between +/-5nT with prolonged periods of weak
southward Bz.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 23234332
Cocos Island 10 22133332
Darwin 12 23134322
Townsville 16 33244332
Learmonth 21 23245443
Alice Springs 18 23245333
Norfolk Island 10 32133322
Culgoora 9 22223-32
Gingin 19 23244443
Camden 14 33234332
Canberra 10 22233322
Melbourne 18 33244433
Launceston 21 33245433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 33 33266532
Casey 23 35444333
Mawson 69 35644776
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 41
Planetary 48 5664 4454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 12 Unsettled
11 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct 20 Active
COMMENT: Expect Unsettled to Quiet conditions today, 09 October
with possible isolated Active periods in the Southern regions
of Australia and the Antarctic driven by the increase in the
solar wind speed due to a recurrent coronal hole. Expect the
geomagnetic activity to slowly subside today and tomorrow as
the coronal hole rotates westward. On 12 October expect geomagnetic
activity to return to Active levels as the effects of southernmost
part of the large north polar coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during the UT day, 09 October, and are expected to be depressed
over the next couple of days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 55% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 0 20 to 35% below predicted monthly values
11 Oct 10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Oct 10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 9 October
and is current for 10-12 Oct. HF radio propagation were depressed
throughout the Australian region during 09 October. Expect depressed
to mildly depressed MUFs over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 738 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 273000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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