[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 9 10:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 08 October.
Minor flaring was noted from active region 2427 on the northwest
limb during the UT day. Expect solar activity to remain Very
Low for the next three days. The Solar wind speed (just under
800km/s) and temperature remained elevated and the density remained
low over the last 24 hours due to the influence of the coronal
hole. The interplanetary magnetic total field strength was approximately
7nT during this period. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between
+6/-7nT with prolonged periods of southward Bz.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 25 35444433
Cocos Island 20 34434342
Darwin 23 35444333
Townsville 27 35544433
Learmonth 31 35445543
Alice Springs 25 35444433
Norfolk Island 21 35533322
Culgoora 40 35-66433
Gingin 30 44445543
Camden 29 -5544433
Canberra 22 25434433
Launceston 34 35545543
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 54 45666643
Casey 26 45543333
Mawson 81 44644687
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 19 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 106 (Major storm)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 102 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 38
Planetary 61
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 44
Planetary 105 4665 5695
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 20 Unsettled to Active
10 Oct 12 Unsettled
11 Oct 20 Active
COMMENT: Expect Active to Unsettled conditions today, 09 October
with possible isolated Minor Storm periods in the Southern regions
of Australia and the Antarctic driven by the increase in the
solar wind speed due to a recurrent coronal hole. Expect the
geomagnetic activity to slowly subside today and tomorrow as
the coronal hole rotates westward. Late on 11 October expect
geomagnetic activity to return to Active levels as the effects
of southernmost part of the large north polar coronal hole becomes
geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during the UT day, 08 October, and are expected to be depressed
over the next couple of days. HF propagation is expected to be
fair to poor today, 09 October due to minor geomagnetic storm
resulting from a high speed solar wind associated with a coronal
hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct -10 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
10 Oct 10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 Oct 10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 8 October
and is current for 9 Oct only. HF radio propagation were depressed
to mildly depressed throughout the Australian region during 08
October. Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three
days. Furthermore expect HF propagation to be fair to poor today
due to the current geomagnetic storm.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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