[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 15 issued 2347 UT on 07 Oct 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 8 10:47:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 07 October.
Minor flaring was noted from active region 2427 (N16W83) during
the UT day. Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the
next three days. An increase in the solar wind was detected by
the ACE spacecraft at approximately 07/1230UT associated with
a recurrent coronal hole. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 07/1600UT. The energetic ion
peak at approximately 1945UT was correlated with a step change
in the solar wind from 600 to 800km/s and a order of magnitude
decrease in the density of the solar wind. Over the last 24 hours
the solar wind increased from 400 to over 800km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +12/-18nT
during this period and was mainly southward reaching the minimum
at 07/1339UT. Erupting filaments were reported early in the UT
day in the SE and SW quadrants and a CME was observed beginning
at 07/0748UT using LASCO C2 imagery, however does not appear
to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 28 24344554
Cocos Island 19 23333453
Darwin 26 24344553
Townsville 30 34354553
Learmonth 38 34345655
Alice Springs 26 24344553
Norfolk Island 26 24344553
Culgoora 52 2--6-663
Gingin 36 23345565
Camden 37 24355564
Canberra 26 24344553
Launceston 52 25565664
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 63 25656674
Casey 30 35333464
Mawson 67 46664476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 41
Planetary 79
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 2431 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 40 Minor Storm
09 Oct 12 Unsettled
10 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 5 October and
is current for 8 Oct only. Expect Minor Storm to Unsettled conditions
today, 08 October with possible isolated Major Storm periods
in the Southern regions of Australia and the Antarctic driven
by the increase in the solar wind speed due to a coronal hole.
Expect the geomagnetic activity to slowly subside during 09-10
October and return to Quiet to Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during the UT day, 07 October, and are expected to be depressed
over the next couple of days. HF propagation is expected to be
poor today, 08 October due to minor geomagnetic storm resulting
from a high speed solar wind associated with a coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
09 Oct 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
10 Oct 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 5 October
and is current for 6-8 Oct. HF radio propagation were depressed
to mildly depressed throughout the Australian region during 07
October. Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three
days. Furthermore expect HF propagation to be fair to poor today
and tomorrow due to the current geomagnetic storm.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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