[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 7 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 06 October.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low to Low for the next
three days. A recurrent coronal hole is expected to be geoeffective
on 08 October which covers an extensive equatorial region. The
solar wind speed ranged between 450 and 400 km/s over the last
24 hours and is currently approximately 400 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +6/-8nT during
the last 24 hours with periods of prolonged negative Bz. Region
2415 (S18) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return
around 7 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22213333
Cocos Island 9 12102433
Darwin 8 22213322
Townsville 8 12223322
Learmonth 14 22215333
Alice Springs 9 12113333
Norfolk Island 7 -3212222
Culgoora 9 22213323
Gingin 16 22124444
Camden 10 22223323
Canberra 7 11113322
Launceston 11 22223333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 17 13135433
Casey 12 33332223
Mawson 55 46523567
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 4345 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 12 Unsettled
08 Oct 50 Storm Levels
09 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 5 October and
is current for 8 Oct only. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions
today, 07 October with possible Active periods in the Southern
regions of Australia and the Antarctic mostly due to weak periods
of negative Bz. The high speed solar wind stream emanating from
the coronal hole is likely to drive a minor geomagnetic storm
on 08 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Oct Poor Poor Poor
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during the UT day, 06 October. Conditions are expected to be
depressed again today, 07 October. 08 October is expected to
be Poor due to an anticipated minor geomagnetic storm resulting
from a high speed solar wind associated with a coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Oct 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
09 Oct 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 5 October
and is current for 6-8 Oct. Conditions for HF radio propagation
were depressed to mildly depressed throughout the Australian
region during 06 Oct UT. Expect these conditions to prevail over
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 94400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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