[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 6 10:30:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 05 October.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days.
A recurrent coronal hole is expected to be geoeffective on 08
October which covers an extensive equatorial region. The solar
wind speed ranged between 500 and 420 km/s over the last 24 hours
and is currently approximately 420 km/s. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-7nT during
the last 24 hours with periods of prolonged negative Bz.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 22342211
Cocos Island 7 22231311
Darwin 2 11122000
Townsville 11 23343211
Learmonth 12 22344221
Alice Springs 10 23341211
Norfolk Island 9 2234211-
Culgoora 20 31363332
Gingin 12 12351222
Camden 15 23453211
Canberra 8 12343100
Launceston 19 23554211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 43 23675520
Casey 19 45342322
Mawson 33 45453326
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 25 4564 3324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Oct 50 Storm Levels
COMMENT: Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions over the next two
days with possible Active periods in the Southern regions of
Australia and the Antarctic mostly due to weak periods of negative
Bz. The high speed solar wind stream emanating from the coronal
hole is likely to drive a minor geomagnetic storm on 08 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Oct Poor Poor Poor
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during the UT day, 05 October. Conditions are expected to be
depressed again today, 06 October. 08 October is expected to
be Poor due to an anticipated minor geomagnetic storm resulting
from a high speed solar wind associated with a coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
07 Oct 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Oct 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were depressed to
mildly depressed throughout the Australian region during 05 Oct
UT. Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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