[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 10 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 11 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 10 October.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days.
The Solar wind speed continues to decline over the last 24 hours
as the influence of the coronal hole subside, currently near
530km/s. The interplanetary magnetic total field strength was
5-6nT during this period. The Bz component of the IMF ranged
between +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22302211
Cocos Island 4 22301200
Darwin 5 22302101
Townsville 6 22302211
Learmonth 6 22312211
Alice Springs 5 22302201
Norfolk Island 4 22202111
Culgoora 11 322-3323
Gingin 9 32312312
Camden 6 22302212
Canberra 3 12202101
Melbourne 8 22313212
Launceston 9 23313212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 13 32513311
Casey 19 35533212
Mawson 27 34533445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22 5423 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 6 Quiet
12 Oct 20 Active
13 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Expect mostly Quiet conditions today, 11 October, with
Unsettled periods in the Southern regions of Australia and the
Antarctic. In the second half of the UT day on 12 October expect
geomagnetic activity to return to Active levels as the effects
of southernmost part of the large north polar coronal hole becomes
geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during the UT day, 10 October, and are expected to be depressed
over the next couple of days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 55% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Oct 10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
13 Oct 10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 9 October
and is current for 10-12 Oct. HF radio propagation were depressed
throughout the Australian region during 10 October. Expect depressed
to mildly depressed MUFs over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 664 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 234000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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