[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 26 10:30:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Low
Flares: C class flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 25 Nov UT. The largest
flare was a long duration C1.9 flare peaking at 08:27 UT. The
2-day outlook is for weak C class flares. GONG H alpha observations
recorded a Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) near the south west
limb during 03-05 UT and a filament eruption associated with
AR 2454 on the north west limb during 07 UT. SOHO LASCO observations
show coronal structures including a CME propagating toward the
WSW during 25 Nov. These structures are not Earthward directed.
The solar wind speed declined during 25 Nov and is presently
near 250 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been about 4 nT and
the Bz component predominantly northward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 0 00000001
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 0 00000001
Townsville 0 00000011
Learmonth 0 10000001
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 00000000
Gingin 0 10000000
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 12210011
Mawson 0 11000000
Davis 1 11001000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 6 Quiet
28 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 25 Nov UT.
Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next
48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced
in the Southern Hemisphere and mildly depressed in the Northern
Hemisphere during 25 Nov UT. Similar conditions are expected
today, 26 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced
throughout the Australian region during 25 Nov UT. The preliminary
daily T index was 116 for Cocos Island, 106 for Sydney and 116
for Hobart. Other stations recorded T indices in the range 70-100.
Conditions are expected to be less enhanced today, 26 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 59300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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