[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 25 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Very low to low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low on 24 Nov UT. There
were no notable solar flares. A weak C class flare may occur
today, 25 Nov. All the filaments located on the visible solar
disk appear stable. The Earth is currently immersed in slow solar
wind with the speed fluctuating between about 260 km/s and 360
km/s. A Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) and subsequent fast
wind is expected to arrive at Earth today, 25 Nov. The magnitude
of the IMF has been about 3 nT to 4 nT and the Bz component has
been fluctuating mostly between about -1 nT and +2 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11000101
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 2 21000111
Learmonth 1 10100101
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Norfolk Island 0 10000000
Gingin 0 10000001
Camden 1 11000111
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23320101
Mawson 1 11110100
Davis 2 12211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
26 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 24 Nov UT.
Conditions are expected to become unsettled to active later today,
25 Nov, due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of fast wind and a
possible minor CME impact. No major geomagnetic disturbance is
expected during the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced
in the Southern Hemisphere and depressed in the Northern Hemisphere
during 24 Nov UT. Similar conditions are expected today, 25 Nov.
If active geomagnetic conditions eventuate today, the conditions
for HF propagation may depress further in both hemispheres during
26 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced
throughout the Australian region during 24 Nov UT. Conditions
are expected to be enhanced today, 25 Nov. If active geomagnetic
conditions eventuate due to the arrival of fast solar wind, the
conditions for HF radio propagation may depress during 26 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 46000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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