[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 27 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: B class flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low to low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 26 Nov UT.
AR 2459 produced the largest flare of the day, a B9.0 event peaking
at 21:41 UT. The 2-day outlook is for an occasional weak C class
flare. GONG H alpha observations recorded a Disappearing Solar
Filament (DSF) near AR 2457 during 20-21 UT. H alpha observations
show a large prominence “floating” above the south west limb
of the photosphere. Coronal Hole 703 is approaching the central
meridian in the Southern Hemisphere. The solar wind speed is
presently about 260 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF was about
3–4 nT during 00–10 UT and then gradually increased to about
8 nT during 11–23 UT. The Bz component was weakly positive during
00–10 UT and then trended southward reaching –6 nT during 11–18
UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11010021
Cocos Island 1 11000010
Darwin 1 11010011
Townsville 2 11010021
Learmonth 2 11010022
Alice Springs 1 01110011
Norfolk Island 2 12000011
Gingin 1 00000021
Camden 2 11011021
Canberra 0 00000011
Launceston 3 01111121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 6 13221121
Mawson 4 11011132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov 6 Quiet
29 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 26 Nov UT.
Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next
48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced
in the Southern Hemisphere and depressed in the Northern Hemisphere
during 26 Nov UT. Similar conditions are expected today, 27 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Nov 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced
throughout the Australian region during 26 Nov UT. The preliminary
daily T index was 129 at Cocos Island, 118 at Perth and 116 at
Hobart. Other stations recorded T indices in the range 65-110.
Conditions are expected to be enhanced today, 27 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 265 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 14800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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