[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 21 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 112/63 112/63
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low for the UT day, 20 Nov.
Expect Very Low solar activity next three days with a chance
of isolated C-class flares. No earth directed CMEs were observed
during 20 Nov. Solar wind speed varied between 380 km/s to 420
km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly Northward with a brief
Southward excursion to -7nT around 0730UT. Solar wind conditions
are expected to be at nominal levels over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 23321112
Cocos Island 4 12320101
Darwin 7 23321112
Townsville 7 23321112
Learmonth 8 23321103
Alice Springs 7 23321102
Norfolk Island 6 13321012
Culgoora 4 11221---
Gingin 5 22320102
Camden 7 23321112
Canberra 4 12320001
Launceston 10 23431112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 12230001
Casey 19 44541113
Mawson 8 33331002
Davis 10 23441001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 4113 2011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 7 Quiet
22 Nov 7 Quiet
23 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions 21-23 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric conditions were observed across
all regions during the last 24 hours, UT day 20 Nov. Expect similar
conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 94200 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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