[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 20 10:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 108/58 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind stream did not gain strength to the anticipated levels.
Solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from ~450 to 400 km/s
through the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF stayed positive
up to around 6 nT during most parts of the day. Solar wind stream
may further weaken over the next 24 to 36 hours as the coronal
hole effect seems to have started weakening. Solar activity is
expected to stay at very low levels for the next three days (20
to 22 November) with some possibility of C-class activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 32221011
Cocos Island 3 21221010
Darwin 5 31221111
Townsville 6 32221121
Learmonth 6 32221112
Alice Springs 5 32221010
Norfolk Island 4 22220011
Culgoora 7 31121-32
Gingin 6 32231011
Camden 6 32221111
Canberra 3 22220010
Launceston 9 33331121
Hobart 10 -4231013
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 32252010
Casey 19 55431122
Mawson 17 43444212
Davis 19 44543111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15 0213 2345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
21 Nov 7 Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled
periods.
22 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The effects of CME and coronal hole remained weaker
than previously anticipated. Hence geomagnetic activity did not
increase to expected levels. Activity stayed mostly at quiet
to active levels on 19 November (UT day). The coronal hole effect
seems to be weakening. Quiet to unsettled conditions with some
possibility of isolated active periods is possible on 20 November.
Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline to
unsettled and then quiet levels over the following two days (21
and 22 November).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with some depressions
in the high latitude regions on 19 November. Minor to mild MUF
depressions may be expected on 20 November, especially in high
latitude regions due to an expected continued slight rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on this day. Conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on 21 and 22 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
21 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 18 November
and is current for 19-20 Nov. MUFs were mostly near predicted
values across the Australian region with some depressions in
the Southern regions on 19 November. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may be expected on 20 November, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ
regions due to an expected continued slight rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day. Conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal on 21 and 22 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 67600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list