[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 22 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low for the UT day, 21 Nov. Expect
Low solar activity next three days. No earth directed CMEs were
observed in available imagery during 21 Nov. The Earth is presently
immersed in a slow solar wind with a speed of about 350 Km/s.
The IMF Bz component was mostly Northward with a brief Southward
excursion to -5nT early UT day. Nominal solar wind conditions
are expected to continue to persist over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21000011
Cocos Island 1 21000000
Darwin 2 21020011
Townsville 2 22100011
Learmonth 3 32000011
Alice Springs 1 21000001
Norfolk Island 2 21000011
Culgoora 5 21-1---2
Gingin 3 31000011
Camden 2 21100101
Canberra 1 21000000
Launceston 5 32111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 21000000
Casey 11 44321121
Mawson 12 44221132
Davis 7 33221121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1122 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 7 Quiet
23 Nov 5 Quiet
24 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels for the
Australian region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 22-24 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhancements observed Equatorial region. Expect similar conditions
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 38300 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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