[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Nov 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 3 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
2 Nov. There are several sunspot regions on the solar disk, two
of these (Region 2443: positioned directly earth facing and Region
2445: positioned on the northwest limb) are still highly active,
with complex magnetic structure. A number of C-class flares were
produced during the past 24 hours mostly from these two active
regions, with the strongest C7.2 observed at 02/0950 UT from
Region 2445.The 2-day outlook (3-4 Nov) is for low to moderate
solar activity with C class flares likely and isolated chance
of M class flares. A CME first visible on LASCO C2 imagery at
01/2336 UTC erupted off of the southeast limb. Initial indications
suggest that the event is not expected to affect Earth. Further
updates will be provided upon completion of our model runs. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind fluctuated between 300 and
360 km/s. The current solar wind speed is 340 km/s. The Bz component
of IMF ranged between -7 to +5 nT and Bt was between 3-9 nT.
The solar winds are expected to elevate at some time within the
next few hours due to the anticipated arrival of high speed streams
emanating from a recurrent, large equatorial coronal hole taking
a geoeffective position on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook
(3-4 Nov) is for the solar wind to remain elevated as the effects
of the coronal hole wanes. The solar winds from this coronal
hole reached up to 737 km/s in the previous rotation. Slightly
weaker solar winds are expected in the current rotation as the
size of coronal hole is slightly smaller compared to the previous
rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 11013301
Cocos Island 4 11113201
Darwin 5 11013301
Townsville 6 21013311
Learmonth 7 11124301
Alice Springs 5 11013301
Norfolk Island 5 31013201
Culgoora 5 2211---2
Gingin 6 11014301
Camden 5 11013301
Canberra 4 00013300
Launceston 8 11124311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 00005400
Casey 13 34423202
Mawson 6 22213211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1223 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 50 Storm Levels
04 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
05 Nov 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 31 October
and is current for 2-4 Nov. The geomagnetic conditions were at
mostly quiet levels during the last 24 hours (UT day 2 Nov).
The two day outlook is geomagnetic conditions will be mostly
active and at times could reach to storms levels. Active geomagnetic
conditions are forecasted for 3 and 4 Nov forecasted due to a
recurrent, large equatorial coronal hole taking a geoeffective
position on the solar disk. Aurora sightings are likely on the
evenings of 3 and 4 Nov from Southern Australian regions, possibly
extending at times to Central regions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Fair-poor Poor
04 Nov Normal Poor Poor
05 Nov Normal Poor-fair Poor
COMMENT: Isolated HF fadeouts possible at low to mid latitude
over the next two day due to active sunspot region. Disturbed
ionospheric conditions possible mainly at high and mid latitudes
over the next two day due to the anticipated arrival of active
geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20%
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Nov 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
05 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 2 November
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Observed MUF's for the UT day 02
Nov were moderately depressed compared to the predicted monthly
values. There is a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts for
the next two day due to active sunspot region. Strong geomagnetic
activity forecasted for 3 and 4 Nov are expected to caused MUF
degradation. MUF depression are expected to occur first (3 Nov)
in the high latitude regions and then gradually expand into mid-latitude
regions within 24 hours. Depressed conditions are expected to
last for few days (3-5 Nov). Equatorial regions may notice a
minor improvement in HF conditions due to possible enhancements
in charge densities. The high latitude ionisations are expected
to shift into low latitudes due to stronger equatorward motions
which are expected during geomagnetic storms.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 48300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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