[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Nov 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 2 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Sequences of mid C-level X-ray flares were observed
0-6UT and after 16UT on Nov 01. Most of the activity originated
in AR2443 (N08E26). This region maintains moderate magnetic complexity
and good potential for C- to M-class flares, with some possibility
of X-class activity. NW and NE directed CME's of unknown origin
were observed after 1330 UT in LASCO imagery. Solar wind speed
was steady at around 350 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly
neutral with some sustained periods of moderate Southward bias
during the first half of the UT day. The IMF phi angle underwent
a sustained 180-degree change late in the UT day. Solar wind
parameters are expected to increase significantly during Nov
02 with the anticipated onset of a recurrent coronal hole wind
stream. The originating Equatorial coronal feature is now at
W20 meridian.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 12223111
Cocos Island 5 12223110
Darwin 6 12223111
Townsville 9 23233121
Learmonth 6 12223121
Alice Springs 7 13223111
Norfolk Island 7 22222123
Culgoora 7 11-----3
Gingin 6 12223111
Camden 14 23--5221
Canberra 5 122-3110
Launceston 9 23233211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 12344310
Casey 16 35423122
Mawson 20 34433351
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 0110 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 60 Storm Levels
03 Nov 40 Minor Storm
04 Nov 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 31 October
and is current for 2-4 Nov. Regional geomagnetic conditions at
low to mid latitudes were Quiet with Unsettled periods 03-6UT
and 09-15UT. At high latitudes conditions were Unsettled to Active
throughout the UT day. An anticipated high speed coronal hole
wind stream onset is expected to bring Major Storm levels on
day one, with magnetic storm conditions persisting into days
two and three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal-fair Poor
03 Nov Normal Normal-fair Poor
04 Nov Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Isolated HF fadeouts possible at low to mid latitudes
local daylight hours days one to three. Disturbed ionospheric
conditions possible mainly at high latitudes due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity days one to three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced 30% 09-11UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values.
Chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts Equatorial/N Aus regions
days one to three local daylight hours due to active sunspot
region. Disturbed conditions expected S Aus/NZ/Antarctic region
days one to three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 72000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list