[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 4 10:30:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
3 Nov. There were 4 C-class flares recorded during the past 24
hours, with the strongest C5.5 observed at 03/1843 UT from Region
2443.The 2-day outlook (4-5 Nov) is for low solar activity with
C class flares likely and isolated chance of M class flares.
A partial halo CME first visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 02/2036
UTC is classified as a backside event. During the last 24 hours,
the solar wind increased from 300 km/s to nearly 800 km/s with
an abrupt jump from 550 to 700 km/s at 03/1100 UT. The current
solar wind speed is 720 km/s. The Bz component of IMF ranged
between -25 to +27 nT and Bt was between 3-40 nT. The IMF magnitudes
were strongest near 03/0700 UT corresponding to the arrival of
co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with the recurrent,
large equatorial coronal hole taking a geoeffective position
on the solar disk. The subsequent high speed streams following
the CIR is keeping the solar winds at elevated levels. The 2-day
outlook (4-5 Nov) is for the solar winds to remain elevated as
the effects of the coronal hole wanes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 21 33544332
Cocos Island 22 33544342
Darwin 21 33544332
Townsville 29 33645342
Learmonth 27 43555332
Alice Springs 23 33545332
Norfolk Island 20 33544232
Culgoora 15 2-33433-
Gingin 24 33544442
Camden 23 33545332
Canberra 18 23534332
Launceston 29 34645332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 32 33555452
Casey 38 56643343
Mawson 45 35555564
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0000 3202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 60 Storm Levels
05 Nov 40 Minor Storm
06 Nov 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 31 October
and is current for 2-4 Nov. The geomagnetic conditions reached
minor storm levels during the last 24 hours (UT day 3 Nov). The
Australian DST dipped to a low of -92 nT at 03/1217 UT. The two
day outlook is geomagnetic conditions will be mostly active and
at times could reach to storms levels. Active geomagnetic conditions
are forecasted for 4 and 5 Nov due to high speed solar winds
streaming from a large equatorial coronal hole now taking geoeffective
position on the solar disk. Given that solar winds are currently
at very strong levels of 800 km/s, and if the IMF Bz turns strongly
southward for prolonged periods, minor to severe geomagnetic
storms could occur. Aurora sightings are likely on the evenings
of 4 Nov from Southern Australian regions, possibly extending
at times to Central regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal-poor Poor
05 Nov Normal Normal-poor Poor
06 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Isolated HF fadeouts possible at low to mid latitude
over the next two days due to active regions on the solar disk.
Disturbed ionospheric conditions are possible mainly at high
and mid latitudes over the next two days due to forecasted active
geomagnetic conditions associated with high speed solar winds
streaming from a large equatorial coronal hole now taking geoeffective
position on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 50 Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 2 November
and is current for 3-5 Nov. IPS SWF HF Communications Warning
67 was issued on 3 November and is current for 3-4 Nov. Observed
MUF's for the UT day 03 Nov were mostly near the predicted monthly
values. There is a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts for
the next two days due to active sunspot regions (Region 2443
and 2445). Strong geomagnetic activity forecasted for next two
days are expected to caused MUF degradation. MUF depression are
expected to occur in the high latitude regions latter today and
then gradually expand into mid-latitude regions within the next
2 days. Depressed MUF conditions are expected to last for few
days (4-6 Nov).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 46100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list