[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 17 09:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 115/66 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low,
with a C2 flare from region 2339 (N12W72) peaking at 15/2329
UT being the most recent flare of note. None of the three filaments
observed blasting off from the northern hemisphere appears to
be geoeffective, although SOHO coronagraph imagery for the last
of these is not yet available for analysis. Very low to low activity
is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined
further to ~400 km/s. The total IMF remained below 4 nT for most
of the day while the Bz component was mostly neutral. Solar wind
speed parameters are likely to be be disturbed from late on 17-May
with the arrival of a CME glancing blow and coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11212011
Darwin 3 12112011
Townsville 4 21212012
Learmonth 4 11212012
Alice Springs 3 11202011
Norfolk Island 4 12212011
Culgoora 3 11212011
Gingin 4 11113120
Camden 3 11212011
Canberra 2 10212000
Launceston 5 11223011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 5 01323000
Casey 8 33222112
Mawson 16 53421133
Davis 10 33323112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2233 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 25 Quiet to minor storm
18 May 15 Unsettled to Active
19 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 17-18 May. Magnetic conditions were quiet across
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Isolated active
to minor storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region.
Quiet conditions are expected to continue well into 17-May until
combined coronal hole and CME effects produce disturbed conditions
possibly to minor storm levels at times, settling somewhat on
18-19 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
18 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions are likely
on 18-May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed briefly by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 80 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over
the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted
values on 17-May, with depressions on 18-May due to likely geomagnetic
disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 529 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 59900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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