[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 15 issued 2329 UT on 17 May 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 18 09:29:39 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 105/54 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed declined slightly to ~380 km/s. The total
IMF peaked at 9 nT while the Bz component varied between -5 and
+9 nT. Disturbed solar wind parameters are likely on 18-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100121
Darwin 2 12100111
Townsville 3 21100121
Learmonth 3 12200120
Alice Springs 2 11100121
Norfolk Island 1 2-000110
Culgoora 2 11100121
Gingin 2 11100120
Camden 2 11100121
Canberra 1 10000110
Launceston 3 21100221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23221121
Mawson 10 23421230
Davis 9 23321140
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2121 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 20 Quiet to Active
19 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 17-18 May. Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet
across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Some active
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet conditions
are expected to prevail until the arrival of a coronal hole high
speed stream on 18-May, when active periods could occur.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Poor-fair
19 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions at high
latitudes are likely on 18-19 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements where observed at Cocos
Island and Darwin, with nighttime depressions at Niue Island.
MUFs were otherwise near monthly predicted values with some mild
depressions. Mostly near monthly predicted values are expected
18-May and 20-May, with mild depressions possible on 19-May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 40700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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