[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 16 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 125/78 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 2339 (N11W58) and 2342 (N17W19).
The largest event was a C2 from region 2342 peaking at 15/0011
UT. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days,
with a chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed declined
gradually from ~600 km/s to ~480 km/s. Total IMF remained below
5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 4nT early on,
recently mostly neutral. Solar wind speed parameters are likely
to be be disturbed from 17-May with the arrival of a CME glancing
blow and coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 6 12231122
Darwin 4 12221011
Townsville 6 12232022
Learmonth 8 22332112
Alice Springs 5 12231012
Norfolk Island 4 11131012
Culgoora 7 22231122
Gingin 7 22232122
Camden 6 12231122
Canberra 5 03131011
Launceston 8 12232123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 12 02353112
Casey 11 34332121
Mawson 18 25532131
Davis 16 24332252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 62 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2231 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 8 Quiet
17 May 25 Quiet to minor storm
18 May 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 17-18 May. Magnetic conditions across the Australian
region were mostly quiet over the last 24 hours, with an unsettled
period 09-12 UT. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 16-May,
continuing into 17-May until combined coronal hole and CME effects
produce disturbed conditions possibly to minor storm levels at
times, settling somewhat on 18-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions are likely
on 18-May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 80 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements were observed at Cocos
Island. Elsewhere over the last 24 hours, MUFs were near monthly
predicted values. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted
values on 16-17 May, with depressions on 18-May due to likely
geomagnetic disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 654 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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