[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 15 09:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 2342 (N18W05) and 2339 (N13W47).
The largest event was a C4 from region 2239 peaking at 14/1753
UT. A CME followed shortly thereafter from the same region, but
SOHO coronagraph imagery is not yet available for its analysis.
The CME from region 2345 on 13-May is expected to give Earth
a glancing blow from late on 17-May. Solar activity is expected
to be low to moderate for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
declined gradually from ~750 km/s to ~600 km/s. Total IMF remained
below 5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22211112
Darwin 7 42211112
Townsville 7 22222113
Learmonth 8 23311123
Alice Springs 5 22211112
Norfolk Island 6 22311022
Culgoora 6 222122-2
Gingin 7 23211123
Camden 6 22312112
Canberra 4 12211012
Launceston 10 33322113
Hobart 6 2231211-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 6 32222111
Casey 12 33322224
Mawson 32 25632236
Davis 25 23532146
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 64 (Active)
Canberra 63 (Active)
Melbourne 74 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 41 6654 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 May 5 Quiet
17 May 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across the Australian region were
mostly quiet over the last 24 hours, with unsettled periods at
some observing sites. Brief storm periods were observed in the
Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 15-16
May, with possible active conditions from late 17-May due a CME
glancing blow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-normal
16 May Normal Normal Normal
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions are likely
at high latitudes on 15 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate to significant overnight MUF depressions were
observed across the Australian region on over the last 24 hours.
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values on 15-May,
improving thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 653 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 238000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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