[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 15 issued 2329 UT on 13 May 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 14 09:29:56 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 2339 (N14W32), 2342 (N18E09) and
2345 (N15W19). The largest event was a C9 flare from region 2345,
peaking at 13/1818 UT and accompanied by a CME. Neither this
nor another CME from region 2341 (S19W06) around 13/1630 UT can
be properly assessed for geo-effectiveness until the relevant
SOHO coronagraph images become available, but some Earth-directed
material is possible, arriving maybe 15-May. Activity is expected
to be low to moderate for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
increased further, peaking ~750 km/s and is now ~700 km/s. The
IMF strength peaked around 18 nT but has dropped to remain around
4-5 nT since 0930 UT. The Bz component dipped to -14 nT around
04 UT, varying mostly between +/- 5nT since 0930 UT. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 13/0510
UT and falling below the event threshold around 16 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 22 34435333
Darwin 19 343-----
Townsville 23 34445333
Learmonth 26 34535343
Alice Springs 24 35435333
Norfolk Island 14 33433322
Culgoora 21 34435332
Gingin 27 34435453
Camden 23 34445333
Canberra 17 34334332
Launceston 25 34445433
Hobart 26 ----5433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 46 46565543
Casey 73 44434593
Mawson 82 55544768
Davis 73 44544785
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 77 (Active)
Canberra 65 (Active)
Melbourne 78 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 46
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 3433 4243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 20 Unsettled to Active
15 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly unsettled to active
across the Australian region on 13-May, with brief minor storm
periods at some locations. Conditions reached major storm levels
after 15 UT in the Antarctic. Mostly unsettled conditions for
the Australian region are expected for 14-May, with some active
periods. Mostly quiet conditions are likely to return during
15-May, unless observed CMEs are heading this way.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal
16 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions are likely
at high latitudes on 14 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region during the last 24 hours, with moderate
equatorial enhancements and southern overnight depressions. Minor
enhancements and depressions are likely on 14-May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 13.2 p/cc Temp: 61700 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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