[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 13 09:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with several
C-class flares, the largest being a C3 from region 2339 (N14W19).
CMEs were observed in LASCO/C3 imagery at 12/0248 and 12/1236
UT from near the west limb. Neither appears to be geoeffective.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days, with
a chance of M-class flares. The solar wind speed started rising
from around 17 UT and is now ~550 km/s. The IMF strength peaked
at 17 nT, with the Bz component mostly southward during 01-17
UT, dipping to -9 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 11 22333133
Darwin 10 22323133
Townsville 11 22333133
Learmonth 12 22333233
Alice Springs 11 12333133
Norfolk Island 8 21332122
Culgoora 10 22323133
Gingin 14 12334243
Camden 9 22323132
Canberra 8 22223132
Launceston 13 22334233
Hobart 9 22323132
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 18 23434343
Casey 12 33223233
Mawson 31 34643354
Davis 15 23343333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21 4533 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 30 Active to Minor Storm
14 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 12 May and
is current for 13 May only. Over the last 24 hours, magnetic
activity was mostly quiet to unsettled over the Australian region,
with isolated brief active periods. Brief storm level periods
were observed in the Antarctic region. Active to minor storm
periods are possible during 13-May, returning to quiet levels
by 15-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
14 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions are likely
at high latitudes on 13-14 May due to possible minor geomagnetic
storm activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. Minor enhancements and depressions
are likely on 13-14 May, due to expected minor geomagnetic storm
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 29400 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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