[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 11 10:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.8 09/2353UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: AR 2297 produced two M class X ray flares and nine C
class flares during the previous 24 hours. The largest event
was a M 5.8 flare peaking at 23:53 UT on Mar 09. This was followed
by a M 5.1 flare peaking at 03:24 UT on Mar 10. Ten flare (F10.7
cm) radio bursts of 550 sfu and 130 sfu occurred at the time
of these two flares, respectively. Learmonth GONG H alpha images
recorded chromospheric ejecta associated with the M 5.8 flare.
Learmonth solar radio telescope observations showed a strong
Type II event followed by a Type IV event, indicative of a strong
CME. When SOHO LASCO coronograms became available (eventually),
they showed the bulk of the partial halo CMEs traveling toward
the east and north east. This is consistent with the location
of AR 2297 in the eastern hemisphere at (S16, E39). The ENLIL
solar wind model suggests a possible glancing blow of a CME at
about 12 UT on Mar 12. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion
enhancement event beginning 14:15 UT on Mar 10; this is a possible
precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
The possibility of AR 2297 launching a strong Earthward directed
CME increases with each passing day as the region rotates further
to the west (and assuming AR 2297 maintains sufficient magnetic
complexity). GOES 15 SXI images show Coronal Hole 658 has crossed
the central meridian in the Northern Hemisphere. The solar wind
speed declined to about 360 km/s at the time of this report.
The IMF Bz component fluctuated mostly in the range -5 nT to
+6 nT, but was predominantly positive during Mar 10.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 22110001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 4 23111001
Townsville 4 22121002
Learmonth 3 13110011
Alice Springs 3 13110001
Norfolk Island 2 12110001
Culgoora 4 22121002
Gingin 2 22100010
Camden 4 22220012
Canberra 3 22120001
Melbourne 3 12220002
Launceston 4 12221002
Hobart 3 -2220001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 12131000
Casey 12 44411111
Mawson 5 22212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 4200 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Mar 16 Active
13 Mar 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet today,
Mar 11, due to declining solar wind speed and predominately weak,
positive IMF conditions. There is an outside chance that a CME
will glance the Earth today. Another CME is predicted to glance
the Earth commencing during the middle of Mar 12. This may drive
unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions during late Mar 12,
and the following day, Mar 13.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly normal at middle latitudes
in the Northern Hemisphere and normal to enhanced in the Southern
Hemisphere. MUFs may be enhanced strongly at equatorial and tropical
locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 9
March and is current for 10-11 Mar. HF radio propagation conditions
were between near predicted monthly values to enhanced at Australian
midlatitudes during Mar 10. The enhanced intervals were concentrated
during the first half of the UT day, especially 05-10 UT. Conditions
were enhanced to strongly enhanced at Cocos Island and Darwin.
The preliminary daily T index values for these station were 142
and 137 respectively. Further low latitude enhancements are expected
today, Mar 11.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 66700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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