[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 12 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.1 1622UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: AR 2297 produced thirteen C class flares, four M class
flares and one X class flare during the previous 24 hours. A
M2.9 flare peaked at 00:02 UT, a M1.8 flare peaked at 07:18 UT,
a M 2.6 flare peaked at 07:57 UT, and a M1.0 flare peaked at
18:51 UT. The largest flare of the day, a X2.1 event, peaked
at 16:22 UT. A Tenflare 10 cm radio frequency burst of 160 sfu
accompanied the X2.1 flare. Radio telescopes also detected Type
II and Type IV radio frequency bursts, indicating the launch
of a strong CME. Cerro Tololo GONG H alpha images show clear
chromospheric ejecta directed toward the east. SOHO LASCO observations
are not available at the time of this report. AR 2297 is located
at about (S15E25) and the center of the CME is probably not Earthward
directed; however, an impact is likely in 2-3 days. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 20:15
UT on Mar 11. This is another precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours. A solar filament erupted from
the NW quadrant of the solar disk during 06 UT on Mar 11. SOHO
LASCO observations show a CME traveling toward the NW during
15-16 UT. This CME will probably not impact Earth. AR 2297 launched
a CME early Mar 10. The ENLIL solar wind model predicts a glancing
blow from this CME late today, Mar 12. Coronal Hole 658 has rotated
into the geoeffective region in the Northern Hemisphere. Solar
wind speeds will probably increase during the next 24 hours due
to the impact of CMEs and the arrival of fast wind. A weak shock
was observed in the solar wind at 04:25 UT on Mar 11. This may
have been caused by the glancing blow of an earlier CME launched
late Mar 7. The solar wind speed is about 375 km/s at the time
of this report. The IMF Bz component briefly reached -9 nT during
06-07 UT, but has otherwise been fluctuating mostly in the range
-5 nT to +6 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 23213331
Cocos Island 7 23212230
Darwin 10 23223322
Townsville 9 23223321
Learmonth 10 23223330
Alice Springs 10 13223331
Norfolk Island 5 12222211
Culgoora 13 25213321
Gingin 8 23212330
Camden 2 2-00----
Canberra 7 13212321
Melbourne 9 13213331
Launceston 12 14323331
Hobart 9 13312331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 12 13214430
Casey 18 35532221
Mawson 16 24333432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1222 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 16 Active
13 Mar 25 Active
14 Mar 20 Active
COMMENT: A weak 11-nT impulse was observed at 05:13 UT, Mar 11
in IPS magnetometer data. This may have been caused by the arrival
of a weak, glancing blow from a CME launched late Mar 7. Geomagnetic
conditions were quiet to unsettled during Mar 11 because of this
solar wind disturbance. A stronger CME is predicted to glance
the Earth commencing late Mar 12. This may drive unsettled to
active geomagnetic conditions during late Mar 12, and active
conditions during the following day, Mar 13. A CME was launched
from AR 2977 in association with a X2.1 flare peaking at 16:22
UT on Mar 11. This CME may impact Earth and drive a minor geomagnetic
storm during Mar 14-15.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly normal at middle latitudes
in the Northern Hemisphere and normal to enhanced in the Southern
Hemisphere. MUFs may be enhanced strongly at equatorial and tropical
locations.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were between near predicted
monthly values to enhanced at Australian midlatitudes during
Mar 11. Conditions were enhanced to strongly enhanced at Cocos
Island and Darwin. The preliminary daily T index values for these
station were 151 and 130 respectively. Further low latitude enhancements
are expected today, Mar 12.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 46100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list