[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 10 10:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.5 1433 UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Active Region 2297 produced 10 C-class X ray flares
during Mar 9, as well as the largest flare of the day, a short
duration M4.5 flare peaking at 14:33 UT. AR 2297 has a Beta-Gamma-Delta
configuration and further strong C class flares and weak M class
flares are likely. The CME associated with the M9.2 solar flare
at 22:24 UT on Mar 7 may glance Earth during Mar 10-11. GONG
H alpha images showing numerous dark filaments on the visible
disk, two of which are rotating across the central meridian into
the geoeffective zone. GOES 15 SXI images show Coronal Hole 658
approaching the central meridian in the Northern Hemisphere.
Fast solar wind emanating from CH 658 may arrive at Earth next
weekend. The solar wind speed declined from about 600 km/s to
about 410 km/s during Mar 9. The solar wind density has been
gradually increasing. The IMF Bz component fluctuated mostly
in the range -4 nT to +5 nT, but was predominantly positive during
Mar 9.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21100101
Cocos Island 1 21000100
Darwin 2 21100101
Townsville 2 21100111
Learmonth 3 31000101
Alice Springs 2 21100101
Norfolk Island 2 21000111
Culgoora 2 21100102
Gingin 2 31000001
Camden 3 22100111
Canberra 2 22000001
Melbourne 2 2210010-
Launceston 3 22100102
Hobart 2 22100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 21000001
Casey 9 43311012
Mawson 11 54210111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12 3233 4221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Mar 9. The
solar wind speed has been decreasing and is expected to continue
decreasing during the next 2-4 days. The 4 day outlook is for
mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions. The halo CME associated
with the M9.2 solar flare late on Mar 7 may deliver a glancing
blow during Mar 10-11. If this happens, it will drive unsettled
to active conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly normal at middle latitudes
in the Northern Hemisphere and normal to enhanced in the Southern
Hemisphere. MUFs may be enhanced strongly at equatorial and tropical
locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly near predicted
monthly values to enhanced at Australian mid-latitudes during
Mar 9. However, conditions were enhanced to strongly enhanced
at Cocos Island and Darwin. The preliminary daily T index values
for these station were 136 and 167 respectively. Further low
latitude enhancements are expected today, Mar 10.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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