[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 15 issued 2343 UT on 08 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 9 10:43:40 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C2.5 flare at 0925UT from region 2297 (S16E56).
The large M9.2 flare from region 2297 on 07Mar was partial halo
but is not expected to be geoeffective. Bz fluctuated between
+/-5nT over the UT day. Solar wind has remained elevated, ranging
between 500km/s to 600km/s. Solar activity is expected to be
Low to Moderate as region 2297 remains stable with the chance
of M-class flares for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 22234211
Cocos Island 7 22223220
Darwin 0 000--000
Townsville 10 22234212
Learmonth 14 22235322
Alice Springs 9 22234210
Norfolk Island 7 22223112
Culgoora 8 22233211
Gingin 10 22224321
Camden 10 23234211
Canberra 9 22234211
Melbourne 12 23334311
Launceston 14 23335221
Hobart 11 23334211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 16 23335410
Casey 21 35543212
Mawson 21 34534421
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Hobart 46 (Unsettled)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 4433 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 13 Unsettled to Active
10 Mar 12 Unsettled
11 Mar 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours as the earth remains under the influence of a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream. Solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated for the next 3 days with mostly Unsettled conditions
and possible Active periods for 09Mar to 10Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for low latitude locations. MUFs
mostly normal for mid to high latitudes over the past 24 hours.
Similar HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with possible
MUF depressions for high and some mid latitude locations due
to periods of elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 7
March and is current for 8-9 Mar. Enhanced MUF's during local
day and night for Equatorial regions and some Northern AUS regions.
Near predicted monthly values for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ
and Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions forecast for the
next 3 days with enhanced periods for Equatorial regions. Possible
depressed periods for mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 210000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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