[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 15 issued 2348 UT on 07 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 8 10:48:13 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.2 2225UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Moderate to High Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
the largest event being a M9.2 at 2222UT. GONG H-alpha imagery
indicates this flare originated from the vicinity of region 2297
with an associated type II radio burst observed on the IPS Culgoora
spectrograph and a notable short-wave-fadeout for the region.
Bz fluctuated between +/-8nT from 00UT to 12UT. Solar wind has
steadily risen due to minor coronal hole effects from 490km/s
at 00UT to be ~560km/s at the time of this report. Solar activity
is expected to be Moderate with chance of M-class flares and
possible X-class for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 33323323
Cocos Island 8 2222331-
Darwin 0 ---0--0-
Townsville 13 33333322
Learmonth 15 33323433
Alice Springs 12 3332331-
Norfolk Island 14 25322223
Culgoora 12 23323323
Gingin 11 3232332-
Camden 12 23323323
Canberra 10 2332232-
Melbourne 14 33333323
Launceston 15 33433323
Hobart 15 33433323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 22 2454342-
Casey 26 4554332-
Mawson 32 3544363-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Hobart 84 (Minor storm)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 63 (Active)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1232 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Mar 11 Unsettled
10 Mar 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for the next 3 days with
possible Active periods due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for low latitude locations. MUFs
mostly normal for mid to high latitudes over the past 24 hours.
Similar HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with possible
MUF depressions for high and some mid latitude locations due
to periods of elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's during local day and night for Equatorial
regions and some Northern AUS regions. Near predicted monthly
values for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions.
Similar HF conditions forecast for the next 3 days with some
enhanced periods for Equatorial regions. Possible depressed periods
for mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions should elevated geomagnetic conditions eventuate.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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