[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 15 issued 2352 UT on 06 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 7 10:52:57 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.1 0457UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 0820UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate with
region 2297 (S17E81) the source of 2 M-class flares and some
minor C-class events. The largest flare being a M3.0 at 0457UT
whilst region 2292 was rounding the east limb. Bz ranged between
+/-9nT with only a minor sustained southward period 03UT-06UT.
Solar wind speed ranged between 400km/s and 500km/s. Solar activity
is expected to be Low to Moderate over the next 3 days with chance
of M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22321123
Cocos Island 6 22211123
Darwin 0 00-0000-
Townsville 8 -2321123
Learmonth 10 32321233
Alice Springs 8 22321123
Norfolk Island 6 12321022
Culgoora 10 23331123
Gingin 8 22221233
Camden 10 23331123
Canberra 10 23331123
Melbourne 10 23332123
Launceston 13 23432233
Hobart 12 24432122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 19 13643122
Casey 17 35432123
Mawson 24 23632235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1001 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 12 Unsettled
08 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
09 Mar 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 07Mar with
possible Active periods due to potential coronal hole effects
within the next 24-48hours. Unsettled to Active conditions for
08Mar-09Mar should coronal hole high speed solar wind stream
eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed for low latitude
locations and MUFs mostly normal in other regions for the past
24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next 24-48
hours with minor to moderate MUF depressions for high and some
mid latitude locations due to the possibility of a rise in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's during local day and night for Equatorial
regions. Near predicted monthly values for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions forecast
for the next 24 hours with some enhanced periods for Equatorial
regions. Possible depressed periods for mid to high latitudes
should increased geomagnetic conditions eventuate. MUF's expected
to be near monthly normal values for 08Mar-09Mar with occasional
MUF depressions of 15% for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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