[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 15 issued 2353 UT on 02 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 3 10:53:07 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/-- 1931UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate with
four M-class flares. Region 2290 (N22W91) which has now rotated
past the north-west limb produced a M1.0 flare at 0639UT, M1.1
at 0948UT, a M3.7 flare at 1528UT (observable from 1643UT in
LASCO C3 imagery) and a M4.1 flare at 1931UT. Region 2292 (S09W43)
showed signs of strong growth over the last 24 hours while region
2293 (N06W09) declined. Bz was predominantly southward between
00UT-07UT averaging -10nT after which its magnitude decreased
to fluctuate between +/-5nT. Solar wind speed increased from
475km/s at 00UT to be currently ~600km/s. Solar activity is expected
to be Low to Moderate over the next 24 hours with Low solar activity
expected for 04Mar-05Mar. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 02/1710UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 16 24443322
Cocos Island 11 23333321
Darwin - --------
Townsville 15 24443221
Learmonth 19 33354332
Alice Springs 15 24443221
Norfolk Island 12 23442221
Culgoora 15 24443222
Gingin 18 33444332
Camden - --------
Canberra 15 24443222
Melbourne 21 24553322
Launceston 26 35554322
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 46 35765332
Casey 29 36553322
Mawson 48 55644465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Hobart 89 (Minor storm)
Darwin NA
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 13 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 25 5554 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 1 March and
is current for 2-3 Mar. Quiet to Active conditions observed over
the last 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. Unsettled to Active
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions for 04Mar-05Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements in some low to mid latitude regions
and minor depressions and disturbed ionospheric support in high
latitude regions were observed over the last 24 hours. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 24-48 hours. HF conditions
are expected to return to mostly normal levels on 4-5 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Mar 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements in Northern Aus/Equatorial regions
during local day and minor depressions in Southern Aus/NZ regions
were observed over the last 24 hours with otherwise near monthly
predicted values. Poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 24-48 hours with
improving ionospheric support for 05Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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