[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 2 10:30:56 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over
the last 24 hours. Three C-class flares were observed during
this period, the largest being a C6.8 at 1613 UT from region
2290 (N21W83). As expected, the solar wind speed remained strong
due to the continued effect of the coronal. Solar wind speed
increased up to around 600 km/s today. The Bz component of IMF
varied between +5/-10 nT during the first half and then stayed
close to normal values during most parts of the second half of
the UT day. This coronal hole effect may keep the solar wind
stream strengthened for the next three days. Currently there
are four sunspot groups on the solar disk visible from the earth.
Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels for the next
three days with the possibility of C-class activity and isolated
M-class activity. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 01/1440UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to minor
storm
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 33332223
Cocos Island 9 33321212
Townsville 11 33332123
Learmonth 11 33331223
Alice Springs 11 33331223
Norfolk Island 10 33332022
Culgoora 11 33332123
Gingin 14 43332323
Canberra 13 34332123
Melbourne 16 44342223
Launceston 17 44442123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 25 45553122
Casey 20 45442223
Mawson 52 46642275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Hobart NA
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 1221 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 22 Unsettled to minor storm
03 Mar 20 Unsettled to minor storm
04 Mar 10 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active levels of geomagnetic activity
with some minor storm periods, were observed today. The continued
effect of the coronal hole solar wind stream is expected to keep
the geomagnetic activity high up to minor storm levels on 2 and
3 March. The activity may then gradually decline to mostly unsettled
levels on 4 March with the possibility of isolated active periods
on 4 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements in some low latitude regions
and minor depressions in high latitude regions were observed
over the last 24 hours. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may
be observed, especially in the high and some mid latitude regions,
on 2 and 3 March due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels through this period. HF conditions are expected
to return to mostly normal levels on 4 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
03 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
04 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements in Northern Aus/NZ regions and
minor depressions in Southern Aus/NZ regions were observed over
the last 24 hours. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed,
especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, on 2 and 3 March due
to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels through
this period. HF conditions are expected to return to mostly normal
levels on 4 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 14.3 p/cc Temp: 48900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list