[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 15 issued 2331 UT on 28 Feb 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 1 10:31:11 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over
the last 24 hours. Six C-class flares were observed during this
period, the largest being a C5.6 at 0939 UT from region 2294
(S13W28). As expected, the solar wind speed increased as the
coronal hole solar wind stream hit the earth. Solar wind speed
increased from around 340 to 500 km/s today. The Bz component
of IMF stayed close to normal values during the first half of
the UT day and then varied approximately between +6/-10 nT during
the remaining parts of the day today. This coronal hole effect
may keep the solar wind stream strengthened for the next three
days. There are three sunspot groups on the solar disk visible
from the earth. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels
for the next three days with the possibility of C-class activity
and isolated M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated active periods
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 12222333
Cocos Island 6 11112232
Darwin - --------
Townsville 8 12222323
Learmonth 10 22222333
Alice Springs 9 12122333
Norfolk Island 8 03222223
Culgoora 9 22222323
Gingin 11 21222343
Camden - --------
Canberra 8 11222323
Melbourne 7 221223--
Launceston 9 12222333
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 13 01223533
Casey 17 24532233
Mawson 19 23322445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Hobart NA
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 22 Unsettled to minor storm
02 Mar 20 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible
03 Mar 12 Mostly unsettled, some active periods possible
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 27 February
and is current for 28 Feb to 1 Mar. Mostly quiet to unsettled
levels of geomagnetic activity with isolated active periods,
were observed today. The coronal hole effect did not raise the
activity to the expected levels (minor storm) on 28 February.
This coronal hole effect is expected to keep the geomagnetic
activity high up to minor storm levels on 1 March and isolated
periods of minor storm on 2 March. The activity may then gradually
decline to mostly unsettled levels on 3 March with the possibility
of isolated active periods on 3 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed,
especially in high and some mid latitude locations, on 1 and
2 March due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity
levels through this period. HF conditions are expected to return
to mostly normal levels on 3 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
03 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded most parts of Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed, especially
in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, on 1 and 2 March due to expected
continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels through this period.
HF conditions are expected to return to mostly normal levels
on 3 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 29300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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