[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 15 issued 2348 UT on 03 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 4 10:48:13 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M8.2 0135UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High as region
2290 (which has rotated past the north-west limb) was the source
of a impulsive M8.2 flare at 0135UT as well as some minor C-class
events. Region 2292 (S08W57) which declined in size over the
last 24 hours was the only other flaring region of note - with
a C1.9 flare at 0634UT. Bz ranged between +/-4nT while solar
wind speed gradually decreased (due to declining influence of
the recent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream) from 550km/s
at the beginning of the UT day to be ~440km/s at the time of
this report. Solar activity is expected to be Low with the slight
chance of a M-class event for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22233122
Cocos Island 6 22122122
Darwin - --------
Townsville 8 22233122
Learmonth 11 32143123
Alice Springs 8 22133122
Norfolk Island 5 22122022
Culgoora 8 22133122
Gingin 9 31133123
Camden - --------
Canberra 7 22232122
Melbourne 9 32233122
Launceston 13 33343222
Hobart 9 32233122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 14 23254111
Casey 18 34532233
Mawson 41 44423276
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 24 4454 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours as the effects of the recent south pole positioned coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream recede. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced HF conditions for Low latitudes and
mostly normal conditions for mid latitudes. Continued disturbed
HF conditions for high latitudes due to recent geomagnetic activity.
Similar conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements for Equatorial regions during
local day and depressed MUF's during local night for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Poor ionospheric support for
Antarctic regions. Similar conditions forecast for the next 3
days with MUF's expected to be at near monthly predicted values,
with possible depressed ionospheric conditions for mid latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 593 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 221000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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