[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 15 issued 2352 UT on 23 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 24 09:52:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2371 (N12W28) was the source of two minor C-class flares,
a C1.3 at 0330UT and a C1.9 at 1219UT. Region 2371's M6.5 flare
at 1823UT/22Jun which produced an earth directed asymmetric halo
CME which is expected to arrive in the latter half of the UT
day for 24Jun (slight chance of it arriving within the next 12
hours). The IMF Bz component was predominantly southward for
the first half of the UT day 23Jun, steadily decreasing in magnitude
from -25nT at 01UT to -10nT at 13UT and has fluctuated between
+/-5nT from 19UT up untill the time of this report. Solar wind
speed has gradually decreased from ~730km/s to be currently ~570km/s.
Solar energetic protons >10MeV remain above the threshold level
and are expected to do so for the next 3 days. Solar wind speed
is expected to be remain strong (greater than 600km/s) 25Jun-26Jun.
Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next
3 days with the chance of and X-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 28 55553122
Darwin 23 55443132
Townsville 27 4-------
Learmonth 30 55554222
Alice Springs 26 55543132
Norfolk Island 22 45543130
Culgoora 36 75543122
Gingin 27 55454222
Camden 28 55553122
Canberra 19 45443121
Melbourne 28 55553122
Launceston 34 56554222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
Macquarie Island 60 67666222
Casey 33 64544244
Mawson 63 77644345
Davis 41 65544236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 17 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 67 (Active)
Melbourne 74 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 44
Planetary 83
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 57
Planetary 74 1442 5495
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 25 Active
25 Jun 40 Minor Storm
26 Jun 25 Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions with possible Minor
Storm periods are expected for 24Jun due to the expected arrival
of the recent M6 class flare CME (late in the UT day). Active to
Minor Storm conditions for 25Jun and Unsettled to Active conditions
for 26Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 22 06 2015 0620UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
25 Jun Fair Fair-poor Poor
26 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded conditions have been observed over the last
24 hours with notable sporadic-E conditions observed at some
stations, possibly further degrading COMMS. Mostly fair to poor
conditions are expected for the next 3 days due to elevated geomagnetic
activity levels. Poor conditions are expected at high latitude
regions due to a Polar Cap Absorption event resulting from elevated
flux levels of energetic solar protons.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Jun 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jun 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 23 June
and is current for 23-25 Jun. Degraded HF conditions observed
over the last 24 hours due to recent CME activity resulting in
storm level geomagnetic conditions and a polar cap absorption
event which is currently in progress. Depressed MUF's of 20%-30%
expected for low to mid latitude station over the next 3 days
hours. Poor ionospheric support expected for high latitudes over
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 12.4 p/cc Temp: 214000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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