[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 15 issued 2352 UT on 23 Jun 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 24 09:52:32 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 2371 (N12W28) was the source of two minor C-class flares, 
a C1.3 at 0330UT and a C1.9 at 1219UT. Region 2371's M6.5 flare 
at 1823UT/22Jun which produced an earth directed asymmetric halo 
CME which is expected to arrive in the latter half of the UT 
day for 24Jun (slight chance of it arriving within the next 12 
hours). The IMF Bz component was predominantly southward for 
the first half of the UT day 23Jun, steadily decreasing in magnitude 
from -25nT at 01UT to -10nT at 13UT and has fluctuated between 
+/-5nT from 19UT up untill the time of this report. Solar wind 
speed has gradually decreased from ~730km/s to be currently ~570km/s. 
Solar energetic protons >10MeV remain above the threshold level 
and are expected to do so for the next 3 days. Solar wind speed 
is expected to be remain strong (greater than 600km/s) 25Jun-26Jun. 
Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 
3 days with the chance of and X-class event.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      28   55553122
      Darwin              23   55443132
      Townsville          27   4-------
      Learmonth           30   55554222
      Alice Springs       26   55543132
      Norfolk Island      22   45543130
      Culgoora            36   75543122
      Gingin              27   55454222
      Camden              28   55553122
      Canberra            19   45443121
      Melbourne           28   55553122
      Launceston          34   56554222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    60   67666222
      Casey               33   64544244
      Mawson              63   77644345
      Davis               41   65544236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           17   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            67   (Active)
      Melbourne           74   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        44
           Planetary             83                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        57
           Planetary             74   1442 5495     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    25    Active
25 Jun    40    Minor Storm
26 Jun    25    Active

COMMENT: Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions with possible Minor 
Storm periods are expected for 24Jun due to the expected arrival 
of the recent M6 class flare CME (late in the UT day). Active to 
Minor Storm conditions for 25Jun and Unsettled to Active conditions 
for 26Jun.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 22 06 2015 0620UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
25 Jun      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
26 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Degraded conditions have been observed over the last 
24 hours with notable sporadic-E conditions observed at some 
stations, possibly further degrading COMMS. Mostly fair to poor 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days due to elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. Poor conditions are expected at high latitude 
regions due to a Polar Cap Absorption event resulting from elevated 
flux levels of energetic solar protons.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jun    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun    55    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Jun    45    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jun    55    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 23 June 
and is current for 23-25 Jun. Degraded HF conditions observed 
over the last 24 hours due to recent CME activity resulting in 
storm level geomagnetic conditions and a polar cap absorption 
event which is currently in progress. Depressed MUF's of 20%-30% 
expected for low to mid latitude station over the next 3 days 
hours. Poor ionospheric support expected for high latitudes over 
the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+09
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:   12.4 p/cc  Temp:   214000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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