[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 15 issued 2356 UT on 22 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 23 09:56:15 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.6 1804UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M6.5 1825UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity has been High over the last 24 hours
region 2371 (N12W11) the source of an M6.5 flare at 1823UT (initial
LASCO imagery indicates a halo CME, undergoing further analysis)
as well as notable C-class events. A weak shock was observed
in the solar wind at 0450UT and a strong shock was observed in
the solar wind at 1759UT. The strong shock was due to the full
halo CME activity from 21Jun. The IMF Bz component had a sustained
southward period between 18-19UT of which Bz reached a maximum
of -39.5nT at 1839UT while solar wind speed reached a maximum
of ~720km/s within this hour. Solar energetic protons >10MeV
remain above the threshold level and are expected to do so for
the next 24-48 hours. Solar activity is expected to be Moderate
to High for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet to Severe
Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 29 13333373
Darwin 29 13323374
Townsville 30 13333374
Learmonth 29 13333373
Alice Springs 20 03323363
Norfolk Island 27 03332373
Culgoora 20 13332363
Gingin 27 12322473
Camden 21 13333363
Canberra 19 03322363
Melbourne 31 13432374
Launceston 46 13433484
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
Macquarie Island 62 02634685
Casey 61 34544486
Mawson 65 24545685
Davis 98 94554575
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 10 (Quiet)
Gingin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 66 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 54
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1101 1423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 30 Active to Minor Storm
24 Jun 30 Active to Minor Storm
25 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 22 June and
is current for 22-23 Jun. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
observed from 00UT-18UT after which a CME arrival produced Minor
Storm conditions. In the IPS magnetometer data for 22 Jun, a
weak (11nT) impulse was observed at 0545UT. Quiet to Minor Storm
levels predicted for the next 2 days with Unsettled to Active
conditions for 25Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 22 06 2015 0620UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
24 Jun Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
25 Jun Normal Normal Poor-normal
COMMENT: Degraded conditions have been observed over the last
24 hours with Spread-F and sporadic-E conditions observed at
some stations, possibly further degrading COMMS. Mostly fair
to poor conditions are expected for the next 3 days due to elevated
geomagnetic activity levels. Poor conditions are expected at
high latitude regions due to a Polar Cap Absorption event resulting
from elevated flux levels of energetic solar protons.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Jun 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Jun 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 17 was issued
on 20 June and is current for 21-24 Jun. IPS SWF HF Communications
Warning 18 was issued on 22 June and is current for 22-23 Jun.
Degraded HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours due to
recent CME activity resulting in storm level geomagnetic conditions
and a polar cap absorption event which is currently in progress.
Depressed MUF's of 20%-30% expected for low to mid latitude station
over the next 24-48 hours. Poor ionospheric support expected
high latitudes over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: N/A
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: N/A
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: N/A
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 19000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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