[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 15 issued 2356 UT on 21 Jun 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 22 09:56:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: *RED*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    0145UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.6    0240UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.8    0944UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1822UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate during 21 June with 
M-class flares from regions 2371 and 2367, the largest being 
an M3.8 from region 2367 at 0944UT. A long duration M2.6 flare 
from region 2371 towards the centre of the disk was associated 
with type II/IV radio sweeps and a full halo fast moving CME. 
This is the third CME in the past few days expected to be geoeffective. 
A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1539UT on 21 Jun. 
This was due to the first of the three CMEs forecast to impact 
the Earth. The IMF Bz has been predominantly northward so far 
with this CME and the effects have been relatively mild so far. 
The other two CMEs are forecast to impact the Earth later in 
the UT day of 22 June with more significant effects. There has 
been an increase in the flux of solar energetic protons during 
21 June associated with the recent flare/CME activity observed 
during 21 June. The flux is anticipated to remain elevated for 
the next 24-48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11100312
      Darwin               6   11100422
      Townsville           6   11100422
      Learmonth            6   11100422
      Alice Springs        4   11000322
      Norfolk Island       4   11200312
      Culgoora             4   11100312
      Gingin               4   00100322
      Camden               3   11000312
      Canberra             2   00000311
      Melbourne            3   11100311
      Launceston           4   11100312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000100
      Casey                5   01100332
      Mawson              10   12112225
      Davis                6   12221222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun    50    Storm Levels
23 Jun    50    Storm Levels
24 Jun    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 19 June and 
is current for 21-22 Jun. In the IPS magnetometer data for 21 
Jun, a weak (19nT) impulse was observed at 1646UT. This was due 
to the first of the three CMEs forecast to impact the Earth. 
The IMF Bz has been predominantly northward so far with this 
CME and the effects have been relatively mild so far. The other 
two CMEs are forecast to impact the Earth later in the UT day 
of 22 June with more significant effects. Mostly unsettled to 
active levels are expected during the first half of the UT day 
of 22 June with minor storm periods possible for high latitudes. 
Major to severe storm levels are possible with the arrival of 
the two other CMEs forecast to arrive in the latter half of the 
UT day of 22 June. Storm levels are expected to continue into 
23 June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 22 06 2015 0620UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Poor(PCA)
23 Jun      Poor           Poor           Poor
24 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions have been observed during 
21 June with Spread-F and sporadic-E conditions observed at some 
stations, possibly further degrading COMMS. Mostly fair to poor 
conditions are expected for 22 June as geomagnetic activity levels 
increase during the day. Degraded COMMS are expected to continue 
into 23 June with the anticipated continuing elevated geomagnetic 
activity. Poor conditions are expected at high latitude regions 
due to a Polar Cap Absorption event resulting from elevated flux 
levels of energetic solar protons.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Jun    40    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Jun    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 17 was issued 
on 20 June and is current for 21-24 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions 
have been observed during 21 June with Spread-F and sporadic-E 
conditions observed at some stations, possibly further degrading 
COMMS. Mostly fair to poor conditions are expected for 22 June 
as geomagnetic activity levels increase during the day. Degraded 
COMMS are expected to continue into 23 June with the anticipated 
continuing elevated geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    50900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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