[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 15 issued 2358 UT on 20 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 21 09:58:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0648UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Moderate level flare activity has been observed from
region 2371 during 20 June with an M1.0 flare observed at 0648UT.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed during 20 June. The two CMEs
observed during 18 and 19 June are expected to impact the Earth
during the latter half of the UT day of 21 June and early 23
June respectively. Solar wind speeds have remained low during
20 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Darwin 0 01100000
Townsville 2 12100001
Learmonth 0 01100000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 1 11100000
Gingin 0 00100000
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 0 01100000
Melbourne 1 11100000
Launceston 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 12000000
Mawson 2 11100002
Davis 3 02200003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 25 Initially quiet with storm levels possible later
in the UT day
22 Jun 25 Unsettled to Active with the chance of minor
storm periods
23 Jun 20 Unsettled to Active with the chance of minor
storm periods
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 19 June and
is current for 21-22 Jun. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
be initially quiet for 21 June with increased activity expected
in the latter half of the UT day with the anticipated arrival
of a CME. Storm conditions are expected with the arrival of this
event. Isolated storm conditions are expected to continue into
23 June with the anticipated glancing impact of a second CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1105UT 18/06, Ended at 0155UT 19/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
22 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
23 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair conditions are expected for 21
June with depressions during local night hours and into 22 June.
Degraded COMMS are possible during 22-23 June with the anticipated
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Jun 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 20
June and is current for 20-21 Jun. IPS Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 17 was issued on 20 June and is current for 21-24 Jun.
Mostly normal to fair conditions are expected for 21 June with
depressions during local night hours and into 22 June. Spread-F
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting
in intermittent degraded COMMS. Degraded COMMS are possible during
22-23 June with the anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 48000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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