[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 15 issued 2355 UT on 19 Jun 2015

Sat Jun 20 09:55:37 EST 2015

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 137/91

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Low level flare activity has been observed from regions 
2367 and 2371 during 19 June with the largest event being a C8.1 
flare at 0927UT from region 2371. A CME was observed in LASCO 
C2 imagery after 0645UT on 19 June and is predominantly directed 
below the ecliptic plane although a glancing impact is expected 
from this event. Further analysis of this event is required. 
Solar wind speeds have continued to decline slowly and are presently 
below 350 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11010001
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11110001
      Learmonth            2   21110000
      Alice Springs        1   11000001
      Norfolk Island       0   10000001
      Culgoora             2   21110001
      Gingin               1   21100000
      Camden               2   21010001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Melbourne            1   11010000
      Launceston           1   11010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                3   22211000
      Mawson              11   53221022
      Davis                9   42321103

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              7   3211 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun     6    Quiet
21 Jun    30    Active to Minor Storm
22 Jun    25    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 19 June and 
is current for 21-22 Jun. Geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be mostly quiet for 20 June with increased activity expected 
in the latter half of 21 June with the anticipated arrival of 
a CME. Storm conditions are expected with the arrival of this 
event. Storm conditions are expected to continue into 22 June 
with the anticipated glancing impact of a second CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1105UT 18/06, Ended at 0155UT 19/06

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
22 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for 20 June with 
depressions during local night hours. Degraded COMMS are possible 
during 21-22 June with the anticipated increase in geomagnetic 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Jun    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Jun    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for 20 June with 
depressions during local night hours. Spread-F conditions were 
observed at some stations possibly resulting in intermittent 
degraded COMMS. Degraded COMMS are possible during 21-22 June 
with the anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    90700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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