[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 15 issued 2352 UT on 18 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 19 09:52:51 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION:GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0129UT possible lower West Pacific
M3.0 1739UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 147/101 148/102
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at moderate levels during 19
June with an M1.2 at 0127UT from region 2365 on the west limb
and an M3.0 at 1736UT from region 2371. Both events were associated
with CMEs with the latter CME likely to be geoeffective pending
further analysis. The former event was the source of an increase
in solar energetic protons which is expected to decline below
threshold levels over the next 24 hours. Solar wind speeds have
continued to decline slowly and are presently below 400 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22111100
Darwin 3 22111100
Townsville 3 22111101
Learmonth 4 22211200
Alice Springs 3 22111100
Norfolk Island 6 24211100
Culgoora 4 22221101
Gingin 4 22112200
Camden 5 22221201
Canberra 2 21111100
Melbourne 4 22221200
Launceston 6 32122201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 11232200
Casey 8 23221312
Mawson 14 24322423
Davis 14 33323324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 4333 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 6 Quiet
20 Jun 6 Quiet
21 Jun 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet
for the next two days with increased activity expected on 21
June with the anticipated arrival of the latter of today's CMEs.
Storm conditions are expected with the arrival of this event.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 18 06 2015 2105UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Poor-normal
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
21 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Noted
periods of weak returns from Antarctic ionosonde stations. Spread-F
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting
in intermittent degraded COMMS. Degraded COMMS are possible during
21 June with the anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 18
June and is current for 18-19 Jun. Mostly normal conditions are
expected over the next two days with chance of isolated depressions
at times. Spread-F conditions were observed at some stations
possibly resulting in intermittent degraded COMMS. Degraded COMMS
are possible during 21 June with the anticipated increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 77600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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