[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 15 issued 2353 UT on 17 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 18 09:53:19 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: NA
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN NA NA NA
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity were observed during 17
June primarily from regions 2367(SW) and 2371(NE) with the largest
being a C5.3 flare at 2253UT from region 2367 in the SW. Mostly
low levels are expected for 18 June with the chance of moderate
activity. No earthward directed CMEs were observed during 17
June. Solar wind speeds are slowly declining and are presently
around 400 km/s. There were sustained periods of weak southward
IMF during 17 June. Solar wind conditions are expected to continue
to slowly abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22233201
Darwin 6 22223201
Townsville 9 22333212
Learmonth 8 22333201
Alice Springs 6 12223201
Norfolk Island 6 22223200
Culgoora 7 22233201
Gingin 7 22233200
Camden 8 22333201
Canberra 5 11223200
Melbourne 8 22333200
Launceston 10 22334300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 22 12555400
Casey 6 23222201
Mawson 25 35643311
Davis 64 33522329
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg NA
Planetary NA
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg NA
Planetary NA 3332 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 6 Quiet
20 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to mostly quiet to
unsettled for the next few days with the small chance of active
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Noted
periods of weak returns from Antarctic ionosonde stations. Spread-F
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting
in intermittent degraded COMMS.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Spread-F
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting
in intermittent degraded COMMS.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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