[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 15 issued 2349 UT on 16 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 17 09:49:54 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity were observed during 16
June. Mostly low levels are expected for 17 June, however, active
regions rotating around the NE limb may produce moderate level
flare activity. No earthward directed CMEs were observed during
16 June however a slow moving weak CME observed during late 15
June to 16 June and directed primarily to the SE requires further
analysis. Solar wind speeds have remained moderately elevated
and are presently around 500 km/s and slowly declining. Solar
wind conditions are expected to continue to slowly abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22121111
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 5 22121221
Alice Springs 4 22121111
Norfolk Island 4 22111112
Culgoora 5 22121112
Gingin 5 22121221
Camden 5 22221111
Canberra 3 12121100
Melbourne 4 22121111
Launceston 6 22222211
Hobart 4 22221110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Macquarie Island 7 11333110
Casey 15 33321352
Mawson 23 54433433
Davis 30 54432643
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 2233 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 6 Quiet
18 Jun 5 Quiet
19 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to mostly quiet to
unsettled for the next few days with the small chance of active
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Noted
periods of weak returns from Antarctic ionosonde stations. Spread-F
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting
in intermittent degraded COMMS.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Spread-F
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting
in intermittent degraded COMMS.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 574 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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