[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 16 09:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, 15 June. The
largest X-ray flare was a C2.5 at 15/1032UT. Expect Low levels
of flare activity over the next three days with a slight chance
of M-class flares. Solar wind speed decreased from 630 to 500
km/s over the last 24 hours as coronal influence wanes. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+6/-5 nT during this period. Expect the solar wind to gradually
decline to near 400 km/s over the next 24 hours. SOHO LASCO C2
imagery showed a CME erupting from the southwest quadrant of
the Sun first observed at 14/0448UT associated with the C5.9-class
X-ray flare from active region 2365 (S15W46). CAT fit and Enlil
model run indicates it will not be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 13 22344222
Darwin 10 22234212
Townsville 13 22344222
Learmonth 15 22345222
Alice Springs 14 22345211
Norfolk Island 11 21343222
Culgoora 13 22344222
Gingin 15 22345222
Camden 17 22445222
Canberra 12 22344211
Melbourne 20 22455322
Launceston 23 33455323
Hobart 14 12234343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 31 32466422
Casey 12 33234212
Mawson 26 33334455
Davis 17 22333335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 80 (Active)
Canberra 83 (Minor storm)
Melbourne 119 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 22 4345 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jun 6 Quiet
18 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to mostly
Quiet conditions over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Noted
periods of weak returns from Antarctic ionosonde stations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times, particularly
at higher latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 221000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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