[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 15 issued 2333 UT on 14 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 15 09:33:40 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0059UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the UT day, 14 June.
The largest X-ray flare was a M2.0 from active region 2360(N15W92)
at 14/0059UT. Expect Low levels of flare activity over the next
three days with a slight chance of M-class flares. Solar wind
speed increased from 450 to 600 km/s over the last 24 hours due
to the coronal hole becoming geoeffective. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +10/-8 nT during
this period. Expect the solar wind to remain elevated between
500 and 600 km/s over the next 24 hours. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery
showed a CME erupting from the southwest quadrant of the Sun
first observed at 14/0448UT associated with the C5.9-class X-ray
flare from active region 2365 (S15W46). CAT fit and Enlil model
run pending, not expected to be geoeffective at this time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 10 32242222
Darwin 8 32231212
Townsville 11 32342222
Learmonth 15 52341222
Alice Springs 9 32232222
Norfolk Island 9 32241211
Culgoora 10 32242221
Gingin 15 53242222
Camden 10 32342211
Canberra 8 32241111
Melbourne 14 32352222
Launceston 14 32352222
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 17 32361221
Casey 15 53332213
Mawson 39 74543215
Davis 22 63443212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3332 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated cases of Active levels in the Australian region
and possible Active to Minor Storm levels in the higher latitudes
over the UT day, 15 June. Expect a return to mostly quiet condition
over the following two days, 16-17 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Noted
periods of weak returns from Antarctic ionosonde stations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times, particularly
at higher latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 77300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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