[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 14 09:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0729UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 126/79 124/77
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the UT day, 13 June.
The largest X-ray flare was a M1.3 from active region 2360(N15W82)
at 13/0729UT. Expect Low to Moderate levels of flare activity
over the next three days with a chance of M-class flares. Solar
wind speed ranged between 450 to 550 km/s over the last 24 hours.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +7/-6 nT during this period. Expect the solar wind to
gradually decrease from current levels until late in the UT day,
14 June, when it will likely increase again due to a coronal
hole becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 21222211
Darwin 5 21221112
Townsville 6 21222221
Learmonth 5 21322110
Alice Springs 4 20222111
Norfolk Island 4 21212111
Culgoora 5 21222211
Gingin 7 21223221
Camden 5 21222211
Canberra 5 30222110
Melbourne 6 21223211
Launceston 7 21233211
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 10233110
Casey 8 23322221
Mawson 19 43433251
Davis 16 23432251
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1211 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is initially expected to be Quiet
to Unsettled, however late in the UT day, 14 June, the activity
is expected to increase to Unsettled to Active levels due to
the influence of a high speed solar wind stream. Higher latitudes
may have isolated periods of Minor Storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Noted
periods of weak returns from Antarctic ionosonde stations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 10
to 20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 61600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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