[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 15 issued 2350 UT on 24 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 25 09:50:42 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2371 (N12W39) was the source of numerous C-class flares,
the largest being a C5.6 at 1529UT. Region 2371 has declined
in area over the last 24 hours and is currently 540 millionths
of the solar hemisphere. Solar wind speed was ~600kms between
00UT-13UT. A notable step increase in speed that has been associated
with the expected arrival of the asymmetric halo CME from region
2371's M6.5 flare on 22Jun increased the solar wind speed to
~~780kms, which has since declined to be ~600km/s at the time
of this report. The IMF Bz component was predominantly southward
for the first half of the UT day, fluctuating between +2nT and
-6nT. A step increase in Bt (Total IMF) was also observed at
~~13UT with Bz fluctuating between +/-6nT. Solar energetic protons
>10MeV have fallen below the threshold level of 10pfu. Solar
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days
with the chance of and X-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 32433221
Darwin 10 32333221
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 10 32333211
Alice Springs 10 32333221
Norfolk Island 10 32432211
Culgoora 12 32433221
Gingin 10 32333221
Camden 12 32433221
Canberra 9 32432110
Melbourne 13 32443221
Launceston 16 32543222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
Macquarie Island 26 23655211
Casey 19 43335332
Mawson 42 74545324
Davis 79 73439332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 47
Planetary 78 7865 6253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 13 Unsettled to Active
26 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 24 June and
is current for 24-26 Jun. Quiet to Active conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions with possible Active
periods are expected for 25Jun. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 26Jun-27Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2020UT 21/06, Ended at 0510UT 24/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions have been observed over the last
24 hours. HF conditions are expected to improve over next 3 days
as recent geomagnetic activity subsides. Fair conditions are
expected at high latitude regions as the ionosphere recovers
after the recent Polar Cap Absorption event.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 23 June
and is current for 23-25 Jun. Depressed MUFs observed during
local day and night for the majority of the AUS/NZ region due
to recent geomagnetic activity. HF conditions are expected to
improve over the next 24-48 hours with occasional depressed periods
for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions. MUF's expected to
return to near monthly normal values 27Jun. Fair ionospheric
support still expected for high latitudes over the next 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 614 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 236000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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